بسام
21-04-2013, 07:28 PM
http://www.mubasher.info/portal/TDWL...toryId=2300522 (http://www.mubasher.info/portal/TDWL...toryId=2300522)
نرجوا من الخبراء إبداء أرائهم عن هذا التحليل المفصل بعد إعلان الشركة والله يفك تعليقتنا وتعليقة كل مسلم
التحليل المالى و الاساسى والفني لسهم تهامة القابضة للإعلان والعلاقات العامه
ارسل هذا الخبر لاصدقائك
اسمك:*
بريدك الالكترونى:*
ارسل هذا الخبر لهذه العناوين:* تستطيع ادخال اكثر من بريد الكترونى و فصلهم ب (,)
التعليق* مسموح ب 100 حرف فقط
ارسل
21 أبريل 2013 12:40 م آخر تحديث : 21 أبر 2013 05:16 م
أرسل لصديق (http://nbdksa.com/vb/#sendToFriendDialogId) طباعة (http://javascript<b></b>:void(0)) شارك (http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php) ضبط الخط (http://javascript<b></b>:resetFont())
تهامة القابضة للإعلان والعلاقات العامة (4070) (http://nbdksa.com/vb/#)
4070 (http://nbdksa.com/vb/stockOverview.html?goToHomePageParam=tru e&stockId=51) 149.75 -16.50 -9.92%
10:0011:0012:0001:0002:0003:00
149150
http://static.mubasher.info/File.Story_Image/2747894.jpg
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تأسست شركة تهامة القابضة للإعلان و العلاقات العامة عام 1395 و تحولت الى شركة مساهمة عام 1403هــ .ويتمثل نشاطها في مجال الإعلان والعلاقات العامة والتسويق والنشر وخدمات الوسائل والاتصالات والنشر والمكتبات والفيديو .
وذلك من خلال مكتبها الرئيسي بجدة وشبكة فروعها وبعض شركاتها الشقيقة بالمملكة العربية السعودية وعن طريق مكاتبها وممثليها في الخارج ،وايضا شراء الأراضي لإقامة مبان عليها واستثمار هذه المباني لصالح الشرك.
وكان لمجلس الإدارة الحالي دورا كبيرا في تحويل مسمى الشركة من الدعاية والإعلان الى شركة "قابضة " وهذا ما يخول لمجلس الأدارة الحالي اخذ صلاحيات اكبر في التوسع في نشاطات الشركة.
ويعد قطاع الطباعة والنشر واستنساخ وسائط الإعلام المسجلة من القطاعات التى شهدت تطورا ملحوظا خلال هذه الفترات الماضية في أعداد المصانع المنتجة وحجم استثماراتها حيث ارتفع عدد المصانع من 18 مصنعا الى 114 مصنعا و ارتفع حجم استثماراتها من 809 مليون الى 3,921 مليون ريال.
كما بلغ حجم العمالة من 2,594 عامل الى 10,479 عامل خلال هذه الفترة و هذا ما يعكس تطور هذا القطاع بشكل كبير و كذلك مدى اهتمام الدولة به و نلقى نظرة على اداء الشركة مقارنة باداء القطاع عن التسعة اشهر الماضية و ذلك من خلال الجدول التالى .
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وبالنظر للجدول السابق و تقيم اداء شركة تهامة للاعلان بالنسبة للقطاع و الشركات العاملة به فنجدها تحتل المرتبة الاخيرة فى كلا من ربحية العمليات ،حيث تحقق خسائر مقارنتا مع إجمالى الارباح المحققة بالقطاع و ذلك بنسبة( 7- % )من ربح القطاع اى بما يعادل (7.04 -) مليون ريال مقابل (1,227)مليون ريال للقطاع ككل. وكذلك صافى الربح قبل و بعد الزكاة 5,1% ، 2.2% و كما تقدر ربحية الشركة للقطاع ما نسبته 6% بما يعادل 2 مليون مقابل 78 مليون للقطاع.وكذلك حقوق المساهمين بنسبة 11% بقيمة 239 مليون مقابل 2.233 مليون ريال للقطاع و المرتبة الاخيرة ايضا فى ربحيه السهم بقيمة 0.14 مقابل 0.36 للقطاع.
إلا انها حققت المرتبة الاولى من حيث الربح من شركات شقيقة بقيمة بلغت (12) مليون ريال اى ما يعادل نسبة 12% من ربح الشركة و 100% بالنسبة للقطاع و كذلك الربح غير التشغيلى بنسبة 0.3% بما يعادل (0.29) مليون ريال.
أولا : التحليل المالى للشركة :
بالنظر لقوائم الشركة المالية نجد بان الشركة لديها نقاط قوى و نقاط ضعف و تأتى نقاط القوى الفاعلة من الربحية العالية المحققة من الاستثمارات والاستحواذ على شركات زميلة و الربح غير التشغيلى.
ام نقاط الضعف فيأتى بشكل رئيسي من الاداء السلبى فى انشطة العمليات والأنشطة التشغيلية للشركة خلال السنوات الاربعة الماضية و نستعرض ذلك بشكل تفصيلى على النحو التالى :-
1.المبيعات /المصروفات / صافى الدخل لتسعة أشهر الاولى للعام المالى للشركة 2012
بالنظر لنتائج الشركة خلال هذه فترة التسعة اشهر الاولى لعام 2012 ومقارنتها بما حققتها الشركة فى الفترة المماثلة من العام السابق 2011 نجد ان مبيعات الشركة قد حققت انخفاضا بنسبة 14.6 % عن عام 2011 ، كما زادة تكلفة مبيعات الشركة خلال عام 2012 بنسبة 78% مقارنتا بمبيعات العام مقارنتا 73.7% لتكلفة مبيعات 2011 ايضا حققت الشركة انخفاض فى اجمالى الربح التشغيلى للشركة بنسبة 28.5 % مقارنتا بعام 2011.
و على مستوى الوزن النسبى للعام من 26.3% لعام 2011 الى 22% لعام 2012.
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كما حققت الشركة انخفاض فى المصروفات الادارية و التسويقية من 30.7 % مقابل 28.8 % لعام 2012 ، وعلى الرغم من انخفاض المصروفات الادارية والتسويقية الا ان الشركة ارتفعت خسائرها من دخل العمليات بنسبة 31.2% مقارنتا بعام 2011 و على مستوى الوزن النسبى للعام فقد ارتفعت الخسائر من 4.4% الى 6.8% .
الا ان ادأء الشركات الشقيقة شهد تحسا ملحوظا حيث ارتفع بنسبة 95% مقارنتا بعام 2011 و على مستوى الوزن النسبى للعام فقد ارتفع من 5.1% الى 11.6% لعام 2012.
كما انخفض صافى الربح من الانشطة غير التشغيلية بنسبة 96.2% مقارنتا بعام 2011 وعلى مستوى الوزن النسبى للعام فنخفض من 6.3 % لعام 2011 مقابل 0.3% لعام 2012.
بشكل عام فقد انخفض صافى دخل الشركة قبل حقوق الاقلية بنسبة 56% مقارنتا بعام 2011 و على مستوى الوزن النسبى للعام فقد انخفض من 4.4% خلال عام 2011 مقابل 2.2% لعام 2012 م.
و نظرا لكثرة المؤشرات السلبية التى ظهرت من تحليل قائمة الدخل خلال هذه الفترة فقد لزم علينا تقديم قوائم الدخل المقارن للثلاثة اعوام السابقة وهى اعوام 2009 :2011 للوقوف على رؤية واضحة على الاداء التشغيلى للشركة و نستعرضها بشكل سريع كما يلى :
•قوائم الدخل المقارنة على سنة الاساس 2009
http://static.mubasher.info/File.Story_File/image/3(313).jpg
•قوائم الدخل المقارنة وفقا للوزن النسبى للعام
http://static.mubasher.info/File.Story_File/image/4(244).jpg
و بشكل عام نلاحظ ان الاداء العام من خلال قوائم الدخل لها رغم التنامى الا انه يشهد تذبذب من عام لأخر و يظل واضح ان الشركة لم تستطيع خلال الاربعة سنوات السابقة ان تصل الى نقطة التعادل من خلال نشاطها الا فى عام 2010 فقط و ما يحقق استقرار اربحها هى ربح الشركات الشقيقة و الارباح غير التشغيلية و علية فيجب على ادارة الشركة ضرورة سرعة السيطرة على مصروفاتها الادارية و البيعيه و زيادة و مبيعاتها و العمل على تغطيتها و تحقيق ارباح من العمليات حتى لا يؤدى ذلك مستقبلا لمشكلة حقيقيه لها .
2.الموجودات ( الاستثمارات ) في نهاية تسعة اشهر الاولى لعام 2012.
لقد سجلت الموجودات المتداولة نموا خلال عام 2012 قدرة 1% مقارنتا بعام 2011 متأثرة بالزيادة فى المدينون والأرصدة المدينة اخرى بنسبة 9% مقارنتا بعام 2011 و وزنها النسبى لعام 2012 ارتفعت من 45% الى 47% ، و كما شهدت النقدية انخفاضا حاد بنسبة 60% مقارنتا بعام 2011 و على مستوى الوزن النسبى للعام فقد انخفضت من نسبة 4% لعام 2011 لتصبح 1% و هذا مؤشر سلبى نظرا لعدم قدرة الشركة لمواجهة حدوث اى طوارئ عارضة لتوفير سيولة سريعة و يجب على ادارة الشركة مراجعة خطة ادارة النقد لديها حتى لا يحدث مثل هذا الانخفاض الكبير .
كما حققت الموجودات غير المتداولة نموا نسبته 18% خلال عام 2012 مقارنتا بعام 2011 م متأثر بند الاستثمارات و الاوراق المالية و الذى زاد بنسبة 18% ، و كذلك بند دفعات مقدمة طويلة الاجل الذى ارتفع بنسبة 100% .
وحققت الممتلكات و المعدات بنسبته 18% مقارنتا بعام 2011،و على مستوى الوزن النسبى ارتفعت الموجودات الغير متداولة الى 24 % لعام 2012 مقارنتا 22% لعام 2011 م و جاء ذلك الارتفاع على حساب الموجودات المتداولة و التى انخفضت من 78% لعام 2012 مقابل 76% لعام 2011 .
وبشكل عام حققت موجودات الشركة نموا قدرة 4% خلال عام 2012 مقارنتا بعام 2011 حيث نمت من 351.7 ملبون ريال فى عام 2011 الى 366.6 مليون ريال لعام 2012
http://static.mubasher.info/File.Story_File/image/5(140).jpg
3.هيكل التمويل( الداخلى و الخارجى ) للشركة .
لقد حدث تغير نسبى فى هيكل التمويل للشركة خلال عام 2012 من حيث الوزن النسبى حيث ارتفع اعتماد الشركة على التمويل الداخلى و القادم من حقوق الملكية بنسبة 68 % مقابل 67% لعام 2011 بينما انخفض الاعتماد على التمويل الخارجى ( المطلوبات ) حيث انخفض الى 32% مقارنتا 33% كوزن نسبى لعام 2011 .
وياتى ذلك الانخفاض النسبى فى التمويل الخارجى متمثلا فى اجمالى المطلوبات حيث و على الرغم من ارتفعها بنسبة 1% مقارنتا بعام 2011 بالزيادة الكبيرة فى المطلوبات طويلة الاجل حيث ارتفعت بنسبة 173% مقارنتا بعام 2011 متأثرة بقرض طويل الاجل قيمته 10 مليون ريال إلا الانخفاض فى المطلوبات قصيرة الاجل و التى انخفضت بنسية 9% مقارنتا بعام 2011 م اثر بالسلب فى مساهمة التمويل الخارجى فى تمويل الشركة .
بينما حققت مصادر التمويل الداخلى (حقوق الملكية ) زيادة قليلة قدرها 6%مقارنتا بعام 2011 و بشكل عام شهدت مصادر التمويل ككل نسبة نموا قدره 4 % مقارنتا بعام 2011 حيث نمت من 351.7 مليون ريال فى عام 2011 الى 366.6 مليون ريال لعام 2012
http://static.mubasher.info/File.Story_File/image/6(114).jpg
4.التدفقات النقدية للشركة
http://static.mubasher.info/File.Story_File/image/7(95).jpg
و المتأمل لقائمة التدفقات النقدية يرى ان التدفقات النقدية التشغيلية التى حققتها الشركة من اعمالها تدفقات سالبة و يعكس ذلك ضعف قدره النشاط على توليد تدفقات نقدية لخدمة انشطة الشركة و ويظهر ذلك واضحا فى استمرار الاداء السلبى حيث ارتفعت بنسبة 4% بقيمة (26.68 - ) مليون ريال لعام 2011 مقارنتا (27.69 ) لعام 2012 مما يعكس استمرار الشركة فى الاداء السلبى لإنتاج التدفقات النقدية من الانشطة التشغيلية ويرجع ذلك الى انخفاض التدفقات النقدية من ربحية النشاط بنسبة 37% .
وكذلك الاداء السلبى للتدفقات الناتجة من راس المال العامل حيث ازداد استخدام النقدية من (29-) مليون ريال لعام 2011 مقابل (33-) مليون ريال لعام 2012 بنسبة زيادة 13%.
بينما انكمشت التدفقات النقدية الناتجة من الأنشطة الاستثمارية من (31.1) مليون ريال خلال عام 2011 مقابل (4.1) مليون ريال خلال عام 2012 بنسبة 87% متأثرة من انخفاض المتحصلات من بيع استثمارات متاحة ،
كذلك ارتفعت التدفقات النقدية المتوفرة من الانشطة التمويلية بنسبة 238% حيث كانت التدفقات النقدية من الانشطة التمويلية خلال عام 2011 (10.66-) مليون ريال مقابل (14.67) مليون ريال خلال عام 2012 متأثرة بشكل كبير من حصول الشركة على قرض طويل الاجل بقيمة (10) مليون ريال خلال عام 2012 .
ثانيا : المؤشرات :
سنتناول من خلال المؤشرات مدى تطور اداء الشركة خلال فترة التسعة اشهر لعام 2012 مقارنتا بعام 2011 و يشمل ذلك اربعة مؤشرات رئيسية و هى كالتالى :-
1.مؤشرات السيولة :
ومن خلال مؤشرات السيولة نجد ان مؤشرين للشركة ايجابيين وبينما مؤشر السيولة السريعة سلبى وهذا يعكس مخاطرة الشركة بتخفيض النقدية سهلة السريعة بشكل مفاجئ و بنسبة 60% و مما يعرض الشركة على المدى القصير لضائقة مالية ، إلا انه و بشكل عام تحسنت قدرة الشركة على السداد فى الاجل القصير و يمكنكم الاطلاع على ملاحظات التحليل لكل مؤشر من خلال الجدول التالى :-
http://static.mubasher.info/File.Story_File/image/8(71).jpg
2.مؤشرات النشاط :
ومن خلال هذه المؤشرات نجد ان جميع مؤشرات الشركة سلبية و تعكس ضعف قدرة الشركة على ادارة موجداتها بشكل يساعد على تحسن الاداء التشغيلى للنشاط و ذلك من خلال تدنى جميع مؤشرات النشاط فى عام 2012 مقارنتا بعام 2011 مما يعكس و يتطابق مع عدم قدرة الشركة لتحقيق ربح تشغيلى للشركة خلال عام 2012 مقارنتا بعام 2011 و الذى اوضحنها سلفا مما يؤكد ان الشركة تواجهه صعوبات تشغيلية اثرت بالسلب على انخفاض جميع مؤشرات النشاط لهذا العام مقارنتا بالعام السابق و وتحتاج الشركة للعمل على الوصول لنقطة التعادل و العمل على السيطرة على ارتفاع تكلفة المبيعات للشركة و زيادة ايراداتها بشكل عام و يعكس الجدول التالى مؤشرات النشاط للشركة كما يلى :-
http://static.mubasher.info/File.Story_File/image/9(69).jpg
3.مؤشرات الديون ( الرفعه المالية ) :
ومن خلال هذه المؤشرات نجد ان جميع مؤشرات الشركة مؤشرات سلبية فيما عدا نسبة الديون لحقوق الملكية مما يعكس ارتفاع حجم التغطية لديون الشركة من قبل المالكين للدائنين ،بينما باقى المؤشرات تعكس ضعف قدرة الشركة على سداد ديونها فى الاجل الطويل خلال عام 2012 مقارنتا بعام 2011 م مما يرفع المخاطر التمويلية للشركة و تكلفة التمويل و يعكس الجدول التالى مؤشرات الديون للشركة وهى كما يلى :-
http://static.mubasher.info/File.Story_File/image/10(42).jpg
4.مؤشرات الربحية :
ومن خلال هذه المؤشرات نجد ان جميع مؤشرات الربحية للشركة سلبية مما يعكس انخفاض قدرة الشركة على تحقيق الارباح خلال عام 2012 مقارنتا بعام 2011 م وقد قاست هذه المؤشرات صافى الربح للنشاط و اظهر سلبية اداء الشركة خلال عام 2012 بشكل عام ، كما بين مؤشر هامش الربح التشغيل الاداء السلبى للشركة و يعكس ما تعانيه الشركة من مشاكل تشغيلية تتعلق بالنشاط و لكن قدرة ادارة الاستثمار للشركة و القرارات الاستثمارية و الربح غير التشغيلية هو ما يظهر اداء ايجابى للشركة فى استثماراتها دون الايرادات من عملياتها و يعكس الجدول التالى مؤشرات الربحية للشركة وهى كما يلى :-
http://static.mubasher.info/File.Story_File/image/11(154).jpg
ثالثا : التنبؤ بالفشل المالى و قياس المخاطر الائتمانية :
وسنستعرض هنا مؤشرين رئيسين يقيسا لنا التنبؤ بحدوث عسر( فشل ) مالى للشركة او ضائقة مالية و المؤشر الاخر يقيس المخاطر الائتمانية التى تتعرض لها الشركة ويظهر ذلك كما يلى :-
1.نموذج kida للوقوع فى الفشل على الاجل القصير.
وقد اظهر هذا المؤشر تحقيق الشركة لقيمة ايجابية مما يؤكد وقوع الشركة فى منطقة الامان وإنها بعيدة نسبيا من وقوعها بمنطقة الفشل المالى ،ولكننا نجدا ان النسبة متدنية جدا لذا يجب على ادارة الشركة مراعاة تحسين مؤشرات الشركة الخاصة بقياس الفشل المالى خلال الفترة القادمة تجنبا لدخولها منطقة الفشل المالى و الجدول التالى يوضح لكم تفصيليا هذا المؤشر :-
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2.نموذج sherrod لقياس المخاطر الائتمانية
و يقيس هذا المؤشر المخاطر الائتمانية التى تتعرض لها الشركة و يعد هذا المؤشر من المؤشرات الهامة و المستخدمة فى قطاع البنوك لقياس المخاطر الائتمانية للشركات و نلاحظ ان الشركة تقع على مؤشر الجودة بمنطقة متوسطة المخاطر الائتمانية إلا انها قريب من منطقة قليلة المخاطر الائتمانية .
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http://static.mubasher.info/File.Story_File/image/12(117).jpg
رابعا : الخلاصة او التوصيات :
مما سبق و بعد استعراض كافة المؤشرات المالية من خلال التحليل المالى و الاساسى لشركة تهامة نستخلص ما يلى :-
•يعد اداء الشركة فى الاستثمار فى الشركات الشقيقة من انجح الخيرات الاستثمارية للشركة و هو المؤشر الايجابى و الرئيسى للشركة و تحتل به المرتبة الاولى داخل القطاع بقيمة بلغت (12) مليون ريال اى ما يعادل نسبة 12% من ربح الشركة و 100% بالنسبة للقطاع و كذلك الربح غير التشغيلى للشركة بنسبة 0.35 بما يعادل (0.29) مليون ريال.
•تعد تهامة اقل و اضعف شركات قطاع الاعلام و النشر من حيث ربحية العمليات حيث تحقق خسائر مقارنتا مع إجمالى الارباح المحققة بالقطاع و ذلك بنسبة( 7- % )من ربح القطاع ،و كذلك صافى الربح قبل و بعد الزكاة 5,1% ، 2.2% و كذلك ربحية الشركة الى ربحية القطاع تمثل 6% بما يعادل و كذلك حقوق المساهمين بنسبة 11% من حقوق المساهمين للقطاع و كذلك ربحيه السهم بقيمة 0.14 مقابل 0.36 للقطاع .
•تظل مؤشرات الاداء لها مقارنتا بشركات القطاع سلبية و تدعوا للحظر خلال المرحلة القادمة و خاصة من الناحية التشغيلية.
•وذلك فى ظل حجم التوسع المتزايد للشركة و الاستحواذ على الشركات الشقيقة دون الاهتمام بالعمليات التشغيلية الرئيسية للشركة.
•يجب على الشركة العمل على تخفيض التكاليف التشغيلية للمجموعة بفتح قنوات جديدة تكون بها مستلزمات الانتاج اقل تكلفة .
•كما يجب العمل على زيادة مبيعاتها للوصول لنقطة التعادل و كذلك تخفيض مصروفاتها الادارية و البيعية لتحويل خسائر العمليات الى ربحية .
•تعانى الشركة من مؤشر سلبى فى السيولة السريعة حيث تم خفض النقدية بنسبة 60% و هذا مؤشر خطير فى ادارة النقدية لمواجهة الطوارئ والذى قد يعرض الشركة مخاطر فى الاجل القصير.
•وبشكل عام حققت استثمارات الشركة نموا قدرة 4% خلال عام 2012 مقارنتا بعام 2011 حيث نمت من 351.7 ملبون ريال فى عام 2011 الى 366.6 مليون ريال لعام 2012.
•و يرجع ذلك لإدارة الشركة لمحفظتها الاستثمارية و استثماراتها وارباحها الغير تشغيلية بشكل جيد بعكس ادارتها التشغيلية لأنشطة الشركة .
•تعتمد الشركة بشكل كبير على مصادر التمويل الداخلى بدلا من مصادر التمويل الخارجى على الرغم من قيام الشركة بالحصول على قرض طويل الاجل ب (10) مليون ريال.
•تظهر مؤشرات التدفقات النقدية تغيرات جوهرية و سلبية الاداء للتدفقات النقدية من الانشطة التشغيلية و تغير ميزان التدفقات النقدية من الانشطة الاستثمارية لصالح الانشطة التمويلية خلال هذا العام نظرا لحصول الشركة على قرض طويل الاجل .
•اظهرت مؤشرات السيولة ايجابية فى مؤشرين و ظهرت سلبية فى مؤشر السيولة السريعة مما ادى لانخفاض قدرة الشركة على سداد التزاماتها قصيرة الاجل و ذلك باستخدام النقدية السريعة و يرجع ذلك للخفض المفاجئ للنقدية بنسبة 60% و هذا قرار قد يعرض الشركة لمشاكل فى مواجهة الاحداث التشغيلية الطارئة يجب معالجته لاحقا .
•كما اظهرت مؤشرات الديون اداء سلبى فى اغلب مؤشراتها حيث يعكس هذا المؤشر تحليل المديونية والقدرة على السداد في الأجل الطويل.
•كما ظهرت مؤشرات النشاط التى تتعلق بقدرة الشركة على ادارة مجوداتها لتحسين ادائها التشغيلى للنشاط خلال عام 2012 مقارنتا بعام 2012 .
•و انعكس ذلك بالسلب على مؤشرات الربحية للشركة خلال عام 2012 مقارنتا بعام 2011 .
•و يعكس مؤشرات الفشل المالى و المخاطر الائتمانية اداء شبه ايجابى ناتج عن تحسن اداء استثمارات الشركة الا انه يحتاج مراقبة على الاجلين القصير و الطويل نظرا للمؤشرات السلبية الخاصة بنشاط الشركة و قرب الشركة على مؤشر الفشل المالى من منطقة الفشل .
و فى الاخير نرى ان مؤشرات شركة "تهامة القابضة " فى مجملها سالبيه و يرجع ذلك لاستمرار الشركة فى الاداء السلبى لربحية العمليات ،وعلى الرغم من تحقيقها لأداء ايجابى فى انشطة الشركات الشقيقة إلا نه لم يشفع لها ذلك و عليه فيجب على مستثمرى سهم تهامة ان يكون اكثر حريصا على متابعة هذه المؤشرات و مراقبة ادارة الشركة فى كيفية تحسين تلك المؤشرات فى الاجلين القصير و الطويل حتى لا تتعرض محفظته لتذبذب فى الاداء مع ضرورة الاخذ فى الاعتبار كلفة الفرصة البديلة لمقتنى هذا السهم .
التحليل الفني لشركة تهامة :-
من خلال سلوك السهم خلال الخمسة اعوام السابقة من عام 2007 وحتى نهاية السنة المالية 2012 اتضح ان هنالك مراحل تجفيف للكميات عند اسعار مابين 30 ريالاً ومستويات 55 مع ظهور نسبة تملك لرئيس مجلس الأدارة الحالي بدر الداوود .
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ومن خلال التحليل الفني ورصد النماذج تم تحديد اتجاه السهم وفق هذه المعطيات الأساسية بناءً على التغيرات الجوهرية التي طرأت على الشركة خلال هذه الفترة وكذلك لعدد الأسهم الحرة للشركة والتي تقارب على 9 مليون سهم استطاع التكتلات الحالية في السهم ان تستحوذ على هذه الكميات والتنسيق فيما بينهم على ان هنالك اسعار مستهدفة للسهم تتجاوز المائة ريال بناءً على مثيلاتها من واقع النشاط وكذلك على مثيلاتها من الشركات ذات الأسهم الأقل عدداً كقيمة سوقية وعن الظواهر السعرية التي تحققت فيما مضى في قطاع التأمين وبعض الشركات التي صعدت مؤخراً كالصادرات ومبرد و شمس .
فعامل الخبر والمحفز مستبق وفق هذه القراءة الفنية حيث ان السهم لم يتداول باحجام عالية مابين 90 و 96 سوى تنفيذ صفقات تبادلية مابين المحافظ لا تتجاوز 700 الف سهم باتفاق مابين هذه التكتلات لاتعكس اي اداء جوهري للسهم.
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الأسعار مابين 150 و 170 بمواصلة سلسلة النسب كانت الطلبات على النسبة القصوى تصل ما يقارب المليون سهم وهذا الطلب لا يعكس اي حدث جوهري للسهم خلال الفترة الماضية او على نتائج مالية تحفز على الصعود
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ووفق النظرة الفنية فان القاعدة السعرية للسهم هي مستويات 90 ريالاً هبوطاً خلال الفترة القادمة من مستويات 255 ريالاً وسيكون هنالك صدور الموافقة لزيادة راس المال بعلاوة الأصدار المرتقبة بنسبة 100% اي ان عدد الأسهم المصدرة ستصل الى 30 مليون سهم والمرجح ان تكون علاوة الأصدار 3 ريال وكقيمة اسمية تضاف على هذه العلاوة 10 ريالات .
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هذه النظرة تسهم هذا التكتل في الخروج من السهم بربح يفوق 100% .
فكما نشاهد التشارت وبداية الأنعكاس للسهم من 55 واهداف فنية للسهم تم رصدها وفق المدرسة الفنية التوافقية والتي ساعدت على اتخاذ القرار وفق ماهو عليه السهم الان من معطيات فنية
هذا التقرير اعداد فريق عمل معلومات مباشر وهو ليس توصية للبيع او الشراء وانما قرائة مالية واساسية وفنية للسهم بالتعاون مع الاستاذ/ احمد الشريف المستشار والمحلل المالي وسعد الفريدي المدرب والمحلل الفني للاسواق المالية
المصدر: خاص مباشر
نرجوا من الخبراء إبداء أرائهم عن هذا التحليل المفصل بعد إعلان الشركة والله يفك تعليقتنا وتعليقة كل مسلم
التحليل المالى و الاساسى والفني لسهم تهامة القابضة للإعلان والعلاقات العامه
ارسل هذا الخبر لاصدقائك
اسمك:*
بريدك الالكترونى:*
ارسل هذا الخبر لهذه العناوين:* تستطيع ادخال اكثر من بريد الكترونى و فصلهم ب (,)
التعليق* مسموح ب 100 حرف فقط
ارسل
21 أبريل 2013 12:40 م آخر تحديث : 21 أبر 2013 05:16 م
أرسل لصديق (http://nbdksa.com/vb/#sendToFriendDialogId) طباعة (http://javascript<b></b>:void(0)) شارك (http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php) ضبط الخط (http://javascript<b></b>:resetFont())
تهامة القابضة للإعلان والعلاقات العامة (4070) (http://nbdksa.com/vb/#)
4070 (http://nbdksa.com/vb/stockOverview.html?goToHomePageParam=tru e&stockId=51) 149.75 -16.50 -9.92%
10:0011:0012:0001:0002:0003:00
149150
http://static.mubasher.info/File.Story_Image/2747894.jpg
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تأسست شركة تهامة القابضة للإعلان و العلاقات العامة عام 1395 و تحولت الى شركة مساهمة عام 1403هــ .ويتمثل نشاطها في مجال الإعلان والعلاقات العامة والتسويق والنشر وخدمات الوسائل والاتصالات والنشر والمكتبات والفيديو .
وذلك من خلال مكتبها الرئيسي بجدة وشبكة فروعها وبعض شركاتها الشقيقة بالمملكة العربية السعودية وعن طريق مكاتبها وممثليها في الخارج ،وايضا شراء الأراضي لإقامة مبان عليها واستثمار هذه المباني لصالح الشرك.
وكان لمجلس الإدارة الحالي دورا كبيرا في تحويل مسمى الشركة من الدعاية والإعلان الى شركة "قابضة " وهذا ما يخول لمجلس الأدارة الحالي اخذ صلاحيات اكبر في التوسع في نشاطات الشركة.
ويعد قطاع الطباعة والنشر واستنساخ وسائط الإعلام المسجلة من القطاعات التى شهدت تطورا ملحوظا خلال هذه الفترات الماضية في أعداد المصانع المنتجة وحجم استثماراتها حيث ارتفع عدد المصانع من 18 مصنعا الى 114 مصنعا و ارتفع حجم استثماراتها من 809 مليون الى 3,921 مليون ريال.
كما بلغ حجم العمالة من 2,594 عامل الى 10,479 عامل خلال هذه الفترة و هذا ما يعكس تطور هذا القطاع بشكل كبير و كذلك مدى اهتمام الدولة به و نلقى نظرة على اداء الشركة مقارنة باداء القطاع عن التسعة اشهر الماضية و ذلك من خلال الجدول التالى .
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وبالنظر للجدول السابق و تقيم اداء شركة تهامة للاعلان بالنسبة للقطاع و الشركات العاملة به فنجدها تحتل المرتبة الاخيرة فى كلا من ربحية العمليات ،حيث تحقق خسائر مقارنتا مع إجمالى الارباح المحققة بالقطاع و ذلك بنسبة( 7- % )من ربح القطاع اى بما يعادل (7.04 -) مليون ريال مقابل (1,227)مليون ريال للقطاع ككل. وكذلك صافى الربح قبل و بعد الزكاة 5,1% ، 2.2% و كما تقدر ربحية الشركة للقطاع ما نسبته 6% بما يعادل 2 مليون مقابل 78 مليون للقطاع.وكذلك حقوق المساهمين بنسبة 11% بقيمة 239 مليون مقابل 2.233 مليون ريال للقطاع و المرتبة الاخيرة ايضا فى ربحيه السهم بقيمة 0.14 مقابل 0.36 للقطاع.
إلا انها حققت المرتبة الاولى من حيث الربح من شركات شقيقة بقيمة بلغت (12) مليون ريال اى ما يعادل نسبة 12% من ربح الشركة و 100% بالنسبة للقطاع و كذلك الربح غير التشغيلى بنسبة 0.3% بما يعادل (0.29) مليون ريال.
أولا : التحليل المالى للشركة :
بالنظر لقوائم الشركة المالية نجد بان الشركة لديها نقاط قوى و نقاط ضعف و تأتى نقاط القوى الفاعلة من الربحية العالية المحققة من الاستثمارات والاستحواذ على شركات زميلة و الربح غير التشغيلى.
ام نقاط الضعف فيأتى بشكل رئيسي من الاداء السلبى فى انشطة العمليات والأنشطة التشغيلية للشركة خلال السنوات الاربعة الماضية و نستعرض ذلك بشكل تفصيلى على النحو التالى :-
1.المبيعات /المصروفات / صافى الدخل لتسعة أشهر الاولى للعام المالى للشركة 2012
بالنظر لنتائج الشركة خلال هذه فترة التسعة اشهر الاولى لعام 2012 ومقارنتها بما حققتها الشركة فى الفترة المماثلة من العام السابق 2011 نجد ان مبيعات الشركة قد حققت انخفاضا بنسبة 14.6 % عن عام 2011 ، كما زادة تكلفة مبيعات الشركة خلال عام 2012 بنسبة 78% مقارنتا بمبيعات العام مقارنتا 73.7% لتكلفة مبيعات 2011 ايضا حققت الشركة انخفاض فى اجمالى الربح التشغيلى للشركة بنسبة 28.5 % مقارنتا بعام 2011.
و على مستوى الوزن النسبى للعام من 26.3% لعام 2011 الى 22% لعام 2012.
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كما حققت الشركة انخفاض فى المصروفات الادارية و التسويقية من 30.7 % مقابل 28.8 % لعام 2012 ، وعلى الرغم من انخفاض المصروفات الادارية والتسويقية الا ان الشركة ارتفعت خسائرها من دخل العمليات بنسبة 31.2% مقارنتا بعام 2011 و على مستوى الوزن النسبى للعام فقد ارتفعت الخسائر من 4.4% الى 6.8% .
الا ان ادأء الشركات الشقيقة شهد تحسا ملحوظا حيث ارتفع بنسبة 95% مقارنتا بعام 2011 و على مستوى الوزن النسبى للعام فقد ارتفع من 5.1% الى 11.6% لعام 2012.
كما انخفض صافى الربح من الانشطة غير التشغيلية بنسبة 96.2% مقارنتا بعام 2011 وعلى مستوى الوزن النسبى للعام فنخفض من 6.3 % لعام 2011 مقابل 0.3% لعام 2012.
بشكل عام فقد انخفض صافى دخل الشركة قبل حقوق الاقلية بنسبة 56% مقارنتا بعام 2011 و على مستوى الوزن النسبى للعام فقد انخفض من 4.4% خلال عام 2011 مقابل 2.2% لعام 2012 م.
و نظرا لكثرة المؤشرات السلبية التى ظهرت من تحليل قائمة الدخل خلال هذه الفترة فقد لزم علينا تقديم قوائم الدخل المقارن للثلاثة اعوام السابقة وهى اعوام 2009 :2011 للوقوف على رؤية واضحة على الاداء التشغيلى للشركة و نستعرضها بشكل سريع كما يلى :
•قوائم الدخل المقارنة على سنة الاساس 2009
http://static.mubasher.info/File.Story_File/image/3(313).jpg
•قوائم الدخل المقارنة وفقا للوزن النسبى للعام
http://static.mubasher.info/File.Story_File/image/4(244).jpg
و بشكل عام نلاحظ ان الاداء العام من خلال قوائم الدخل لها رغم التنامى الا انه يشهد تذبذب من عام لأخر و يظل واضح ان الشركة لم تستطيع خلال الاربعة سنوات السابقة ان تصل الى نقطة التعادل من خلال نشاطها الا فى عام 2010 فقط و ما يحقق استقرار اربحها هى ربح الشركات الشقيقة و الارباح غير التشغيلية و علية فيجب على ادارة الشركة ضرورة سرعة السيطرة على مصروفاتها الادارية و البيعيه و زيادة و مبيعاتها و العمل على تغطيتها و تحقيق ارباح من العمليات حتى لا يؤدى ذلك مستقبلا لمشكلة حقيقيه لها .
2.الموجودات ( الاستثمارات ) في نهاية تسعة اشهر الاولى لعام 2012.
لقد سجلت الموجودات المتداولة نموا خلال عام 2012 قدرة 1% مقارنتا بعام 2011 متأثرة بالزيادة فى المدينون والأرصدة المدينة اخرى بنسبة 9% مقارنتا بعام 2011 و وزنها النسبى لعام 2012 ارتفعت من 45% الى 47% ، و كما شهدت النقدية انخفاضا حاد بنسبة 60% مقارنتا بعام 2011 و على مستوى الوزن النسبى للعام فقد انخفضت من نسبة 4% لعام 2011 لتصبح 1% و هذا مؤشر سلبى نظرا لعدم قدرة الشركة لمواجهة حدوث اى طوارئ عارضة لتوفير سيولة سريعة و يجب على ادارة الشركة مراجعة خطة ادارة النقد لديها حتى لا يحدث مثل هذا الانخفاض الكبير .
كما حققت الموجودات غير المتداولة نموا نسبته 18% خلال عام 2012 مقارنتا بعام 2011 م متأثر بند الاستثمارات و الاوراق المالية و الذى زاد بنسبة 18% ، و كذلك بند دفعات مقدمة طويلة الاجل الذى ارتفع بنسبة 100% .
وحققت الممتلكات و المعدات بنسبته 18% مقارنتا بعام 2011،و على مستوى الوزن النسبى ارتفعت الموجودات الغير متداولة الى 24 % لعام 2012 مقارنتا 22% لعام 2011 م و جاء ذلك الارتفاع على حساب الموجودات المتداولة و التى انخفضت من 78% لعام 2012 مقابل 76% لعام 2011 .
وبشكل عام حققت موجودات الشركة نموا قدرة 4% خلال عام 2012 مقارنتا بعام 2011 حيث نمت من 351.7 ملبون ريال فى عام 2011 الى 366.6 مليون ريال لعام 2012
http://static.mubasher.info/File.Story_File/image/5(140).jpg
3.هيكل التمويل( الداخلى و الخارجى ) للشركة .
لقد حدث تغير نسبى فى هيكل التمويل للشركة خلال عام 2012 من حيث الوزن النسبى حيث ارتفع اعتماد الشركة على التمويل الداخلى و القادم من حقوق الملكية بنسبة 68 % مقابل 67% لعام 2011 بينما انخفض الاعتماد على التمويل الخارجى ( المطلوبات ) حيث انخفض الى 32% مقارنتا 33% كوزن نسبى لعام 2011 .
وياتى ذلك الانخفاض النسبى فى التمويل الخارجى متمثلا فى اجمالى المطلوبات حيث و على الرغم من ارتفعها بنسبة 1% مقارنتا بعام 2011 بالزيادة الكبيرة فى المطلوبات طويلة الاجل حيث ارتفعت بنسبة 173% مقارنتا بعام 2011 متأثرة بقرض طويل الاجل قيمته 10 مليون ريال إلا الانخفاض فى المطلوبات قصيرة الاجل و التى انخفضت بنسية 9% مقارنتا بعام 2011 م اثر بالسلب فى مساهمة التمويل الخارجى فى تمويل الشركة .
بينما حققت مصادر التمويل الداخلى (حقوق الملكية ) زيادة قليلة قدرها 6%مقارنتا بعام 2011 و بشكل عام شهدت مصادر التمويل ككل نسبة نموا قدره 4 % مقارنتا بعام 2011 حيث نمت من 351.7 مليون ريال فى عام 2011 الى 366.6 مليون ريال لعام 2012
http://static.mubasher.info/File.Story_File/image/6(114).jpg
4.التدفقات النقدية للشركة
http://static.mubasher.info/File.Story_File/image/7(95).jpg
و المتأمل لقائمة التدفقات النقدية يرى ان التدفقات النقدية التشغيلية التى حققتها الشركة من اعمالها تدفقات سالبة و يعكس ذلك ضعف قدره النشاط على توليد تدفقات نقدية لخدمة انشطة الشركة و ويظهر ذلك واضحا فى استمرار الاداء السلبى حيث ارتفعت بنسبة 4% بقيمة (26.68 - ) مليون ريال لعام 2011 مقارنتا (27.69 ) لعام 2012 مما يعكس استمرار الشركة فى الاداء السلبى لإنتاج التدفقات النقدية من الانشطة التشغيلية ويرجع ذلك الى انخفاض التدفقات النقدية من ربحية النشاط بنسبة 37% .
وكذلك الاداء السلبى للتدفقات الناتجة من راس المال العامل حيث ازداد استخدام النقدية من (29-) مليون ريال لعام 2011 مقابل (33-) مليون ريال لعام 2012 بنسبة زيادة 13%.
بينما انكمشت التدفقات النقدية الناتجة من الأنشطة الاستثمارية من (31.1) مليون ريال خلال عام 2011 مقابل (4.1) مليون ريال خلال عام 2012 بنسبة 87% متأثرة من انخفاض المتحصلات من بيع استثمارات متاحة ،
كذلك ارتفعت التدفقات النقدية المتوفرة من الانشطة التمويلية بنسبة 238% حيث كانت التدفقات النقدية من الانشطة التمويلية خلال عام 2011 (10.66-) مليون ريال مقابل (14.67) مليون ريال خلال عام 2012 متأثرة بشكل كبير من حصول الشركة على قرض طويل الاجل بقيمة (10) مليون ريال خلال عام 2012 .
ثانيا : المؤشرات :
سنتناول من خلال المؤشرات مدى تطور اداء الشركة خلال فترة التسعة اشهر لعام 2012 مقارنتا بعام 2011 و يشمل ذلك اربعة مؤشرات رئيسية و هى كالتالى :-
1.مؤشرات السيولة :
ومن خلال مؤشرات السيولة نجد ان مؤشرين للشركة ايجابيين وبينما مؤشر السيولة السريعة سلبى وهذا يعكس مخاطرة الشركة بتخفيض النقدية سهلة السريعة بشكل مفاجئ و بنسبة 60% و مما يعرض الشركة على المدى القصير لضائقة مالية ، إلا انه و بشكل عام تحسنت قدرة الشركة على السداد فى الاجل القصير و يمكنكم الاطلاع على ملاحظات التحليل لكل مؤشر من خلال الجدول التالى :-
http://static.mubasher.info/File.Story_File/image/8(71).jpg
2.مؤشرات النشاط :
ومن خلال هذه المؤشرات نجد ان جميع مؤشرات الشركة سلبية و تعكس ضعف قدرة الشركة على ادارة موجداتها بشكل يساعد على تحسن الاداء التشغيلى للنشاط و ذلك من خلال تدنى جميع مؤشرات النشاط فى عام 2012 مقارنتا بعام 2011 مما يعكس و يتطابق مع عدم قدرة الشركة لتحقيق ربح تشغيلى للشركة خلال عام 2012 مقارنتا بعام 2011 و الذى اوضحنها سلفا مما يؤكد ان الشركة تواجهه صعوبات تشغيلية اثرت بالسلب على انخفاض جميع مؤشرات النشاط لهذا العام مقارنتا بالعام السابق و وتحتاج الشركة للعمل على الوصول لنقطة التعادل و العمل على السيطرة على ارتفاع تكلفة المبيعات للشركة و زيادة ايراداتها بشكل عام و يعكس الجدول التالى مؤشرات النشاط للشركة كما يلى :-
http://static.mubasher.info/File.Story_File/image/9(69).jpg
3.مؤشرات الديون ( الرفعه المالية ) :
ومن خلال هذه المؤشرات نجد ان جميع مؤشرات الشركة مؤشرات سلبية فيما عدا نسبة الديون لحقوق الملكية مما يعكس ارتفاع حجم التغطية لديون الشركة من قبل المالكين للدائنين ،بينما باقى المؤشرات تعكس ضعف قدرة الشركة على سداد ديونها فى الاجل الطويل خلال عام 2012 مقارنتا بعام 2011 م مما يرفع المخاطر التمويلية للشركة و تكلفة التمويل و يعكس الجدول التالى مؤشرات الديون للشركة وهى كما يلى :-
http://static.mubasher.info/File.Story_File/image/10(42).jpg
4.مؤشرات الربحية :
ومن خلال هذه المؤشرات نجد ان جميع مؤشرات الربحية للشركة سلبية مما يعكس انخفاض قدرة الشركة على تحقيق الارباح خلال عام 2012 مقارنتا بعام 2011 م وقد قاست هذه المؤشرات صافى الربح للنشاط و اظهر سلبية اداء الشركة خلال عام 2012 بشكل عام ، كما بين مؤشر هامش الربح التشغيل الاداء السلبى للشركة و يعكس ما تعانيه الشركة من مشاكل تشغيلية تتعلق بالنشاط و لكن قدرة ادارة الاستثمار للشركة و القرارات الاستثمارية و الربح غير التشغيلية هو ما يظهر اداء ايجابى للشركة فى استثماراتها دون الايرادات من عملياتها و يعكس الجدول التالى مؤشرات الربحية للشركة وهى كما يلى :-
http://static.mubasher.info/File.Story_File/image/11(154).jpg
ثالثا : التنبؤ بالفشل المالى و قياس المخاطر الائتمانية :
وسنستعرض هنا مؤشرين رئيسين يقيسا لنا التنبؤ بحدوث عسر( فشل ) مالى للشركة او ضائقة مالية و المؤشر الاخر يقيس المخاطر الائتمانية التى تتعرض لها الشركة ويظهر ذلك كما يلى :-
1.نموذج kida للوقوع فى الفشل على الاجل القصير.
وقد اظهر هذا المؤشر تحقيق الشركة لقيمة ايجابية مما يؤكد وقوع الشركة فى منطقة الامان وإنها بعيدة نسبيا من وقوعها بمنطقة الفشل المالى ،ولكننا نجدا ان النسبة متدنية جدا لذا يجب على ادارة الشركة مراعاة تحسين مؤشرات الشركة الخاصة بقياس الفشل المالى خلال الفترة القادمة تجنبا لدخولها منطقة الفشل المالى و الجدول التالى يوضح لكم تفصيليا هذا المؤشر :-
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2.نموذج sherrod لقياس المخاطر الائتمانية
و يقيس هذا المؤشر المخاطر الائتمانية التى تتعرض لها الشركة و يعد هذا المؤشر من المؤشرات الهامة و المستخدمة فى قطاع البنوك لقياس المخاطر الائتمانية للشركات و نلاحظ ان الشركة تقع على مؤشر الجودة بمنطقة متوسطة المخاطر الائتمانية إلا انها قريب من منطقة قليلة المخاطر الائتمانية .
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http://static.mubasher.info/File.Story_File/image/12(117).jpg
رابعا : الخلاصة او التوصيات :
مما سبق و بعد استعراض كافة المؤشرات المالية من خلال التحليل المالى و الاساسى لشركة تهامة نستخلص ما يلى :-
•يعد اداء الشركة فى الاستثمار فى الشركات الشقيقة من انجح الخيرات الاستثمارية للشركة و هو المؤشر الايجابى و الرئيسى للشركة و تحتل به المرتبة الاولى داخل القطاع بقيمة بلغت (12) مليون ريال اى ما يعادل نسبة 12% من ربح الشركة و 100% بالنسبة للقطاع و كذلك الربح غير التشغيلى للشركة بنسبة 0.35 بما يعادل (0.29) مليون ريال.
•تعد تهامة اقل و اضعف شركات قطاع الاعلام و النشر من حيث ربحية العمليات حيث تحقق خسائر مقارنتا مع إجمالى الارباح المحققة بالقطاع و ذلك بنسبة( 7- % )من ربح القطاع ،و كذلك صافى الربح قبل و بعد الزكاة 5,1% ، 2.2% و كذلك ربحية الشركة الى ربحية القطاع تمثل 6% بما يعادل و كذلك حقوق المساهمين بنسبة 11% من حقوق المساهمين للقطاع و كذلك ربحيه السهم بقيمة 0.14 مقابل 0.36 للقطاع .
•تظل مؤشرات الاداء لها مقارنتا بشركات القطاع سلبية و تدعوا للحظر خلال المرحلة القادمة و خاصة من الناحية التشغيلية.
•وذلك فى ظل حجم التوسع المتزايد للشركة و الاستحواذ على الشركات الشقيقة دون الاهتمام بالعمليات التشغيلية الرئيسية للشركة.
•يجب على الشركة العمل على تخفيض التكاليف التشغيلية للمجموعة بفتح قنوات جديدة تكون بها مستلزمات الانتاج اقل تكلفة .
•كما يجب العمل على زيادة مبيعاتها للوصول لنقطة التعادل و كذلك تخفيض مصروفاتها الادارية و البيعية لتحويل خسائر العمليات الى ربحية .
•تعانى الشركة من مؤشر سلبى فى السيولة السريعة حيث تم خفض النقدية بنسبة 60% و هذا مؤشر خطير فى ادارة النقدية لمواجهة الطوارئ والذى قد يعرض الشركة مخاطر فى الاجل القصير.
•وبشكل عام حققت استثمارات الشركة نموا قدرة 4% خلال عام 2012 مقارنتا بعام 2011 حيث نمت من 351.7 ملبون ريال فى عام 2011 الى 366.6 مليون ريال لعام 2012.
•و يرجع ذلك لإدارة الشركة لمحفظتها الاستثمارية و استثماراتها وارباحها الغير تشغيلية بشكل جيد بعكس ادارتها التشغيلية لأنشطة الشركة .
•تعتمد الشركة بشكل كبير على مصادر التمويل الداخلى بدلا من مصادر التمويل الخارجى على الرغم من قيام الشركة بالحصول على قرض طويل الاجل ب (10) مليون ريال.
•تظهر مؤشرات التدفقات النقدية تغيرات جوهرية و سلبية الاداء للتدفقات النقدية من الانشطة التشغيلية و تغير ميزان التدفقات النقدية من الانشطة الاستثمارية لصالح الانشطة التمويلية خلال هذا العام نظرا لحصول الشركة على قرض طويل الاجل .
•اظهرت مؤشرات السيولة ايجابية فى مؤشرين و ظهرت سلبية فى مؤشر السيولة السريعة مما ادى لانخفاض قدرة الشركة على سداد التزاماتها قصيرة الاجل و ذلك باستخدام النقدية السريعة و يرجع ذلك للخفض المفاجئ للنقدية بنسبة 60% و هذا قرار قد يعرض الشركة لمشاكل فى مواجهة الاحداث التشغيلية الطارئة يجب معالجته لاحقا .
•كما اظهرت مؤشرات الديون اداء سلبى فى اغلب مؤشراتها حيث يعكس هذا المؤشر تحليل المديونية والقدرة على السداد في الأجل الطويل.
•كما ظهرت مؤشرات النشاط التى تتعلق بقدرة الشركة على ادارة مجوداتها لتحسين ادائها التشغيلى للنشاط خلال عام 2012 مقارنتا بعام 2012 .
•و انعكس ذلك بالسلب على مؤشرات الربحية للشركة خلال عام 2012 مقارنتا بعام 2011 .
•و يعكس مؤشرات الفشل المالى و المخاطر الائتمانية اداء شبه ايجابى ناتج عن تحسن اداء استثمارات الشركة الا انه يحتاج مراقبة على الاجلين القصير و الطويل نظرا للمؤشرات السلبية الخاصة بنشاط الشركة و قرب الشركة على مؤشر الفشل المالى من منطقة الفشل .
و فى الاخير نرى ان مؤشرات شركة "تهامة القابضة " فى مجملها سالبيه و يرجع ذلك لاستمرار الشركة فى الاداء السلبى لربحية العمليات ،وعلى الرغم من تحقيقها لأداء ايجابى فى انشطة الشركات الشقيقة إلا نه لم يشفع لها ذلك و عليه فيجب على مستثمرى سهم تهامة ان يكون اكثر حريصا على متابعة هذه المؤشرات و مراقبة ادارة الشركة فى كيفية تحسين تلك المؤشرات فى الاجلين القصير و الطويل حتى لا تتعرض محفظته لتذبذب فى الاداء مع ضرورة الاخذ فى الاعتبار كلفة الفرصة البديلة لمقتنى هذا السهم .
التحليل الفني لشركة تهامة :-
من خلال سلوك السهم خلال الخمسة اعوام السابقة من عام 2007 وحتى نهاية السنة المالية 2012 اتضح ان هنالك مراحل تجفيف للكميات عند اسعار مابين 30 ريالاً ومستويات 55 مع ظهور نسبة تملك لرئيس مجلس الأدارة الحالي بدر الداوود .
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ومن خلال التحليل الفني ورصد النماذج تم تحديد اتجاه السهم وفق هذه المعطيات الأساسية بناءً على التغيرات الجوهرية التي طرأت على الشركة خلال هذه الفترة وكذلك لعدد الأسهم الحرة للشركة والتي تقارب على 9 مليون سهم استطاع التكتلات الحالية في السهم ان تستحوذ على هذه الكميات والتنسيق فيما بينهم على ان هنالك اسعار مستهدفة للسهم تتجاوز المائة ريال بناءً على مثيلاتها من واقع النشاط وكذلك على مثيلاتها من الشركات ذات الأسهم الأقل عدداً كقيمة سوقية وعن الظواهر السعرية التي تحققت فيما مضى في قطاع التأمين وبعض الشركات التي صعدت مؤخراً كالصادرات ومبرد و شمس .
فعامل الخبر والمحفز مستبق وفق هذه القراءة الفنية حيث ان السهم لم يتداول باحجام عالية مابين 90 و 96 سوى تنفيذ صفقات تبادلية مابين المحافظ لا تتجاوز 700 الف سهم باتفاق مابين هذه التكتلات لاتعكس اي اداء جوهري للسهم.
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الأسعار مابين 150 و 170 بمواصلة سلسلة النسب كانت الطلبات على النسبة القصوى تصل ما يقارب المليون سهم وهذا الطلب لا يعكس اي حدث جوهري للسهم خلال الفترة الماضية او على نتائج مالية تحفز على الصعود
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ووفق النظرة الفنية فان القاعدة السعرية للسهم هي مستويات 90 ريالاً هبوطاً خلال الفترة القادمة من مستويات 255 ريالاً وسيكون هنالك صدور الموافقة لزيادة راس المال بعلاوة الأصدار المرتقبة بنسبة 100% اي ان عدد الأسهم المصدرة ستصل الى 30 مليون سهم والمرجح ان تكون علاوة الأصدار 3 ريال وكقيمة اسمية تضاف على هذه العلاوة 10 ريالات .
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هذه النظرة تسهم هذا التكتل في الخروج من السهم بربح يفوق 100% .
فكما نشاهد التشارت وبداية الأنعكاس للسهم من 55 واهداف فنية للسهم تم رصدها وفق المدرسة الفنية التوافقية والتي ساعدت على اتخاذ القرار وفق ماهو عليه السهم الان من معطيات فنية
هذا التقرير اعداد فريق عمل معلومات مباشر وهو ليس توصية للبيع او الشراء وانما قرائة مالية واساسية وفنية للسهم بالتعاون مع الاستاذ/ احمد الشريف المستشار والمحلل المالي وسعد الفريدي المدرب والمحلل الفني للاسواق المالية
المصدر: خاص مباشر